Last night I wrote a bit about what the death of Osama Bin Laden means for American politics. In the post, I alluded to the fact that George H.W. Bush was sitting pretty at this point in his administration due to the “success” of the Gulf War, but the economy drove him from office a year and a half later.
So, is Obama destined for the same fate if the economy doesn’t get a jump start in the next few months?
Not necessarily. Bush got himself in trouble with his “no new taxes” pledge. I’ve written in the past about how increased revenue can’t be taken off the table when trying to balance a budget, personal or governmental. Bush got himself into trouble by making an unrealistic promise and then breaking it, thus demoralizing hies base. Clinton ran a smart, focussed campaign that clearly aligned him with the American people while Bush ran hard to the right to try and pick up his base.
So what does all this mean to Obama? Well, first, he’s not running on a “no new taxes pledge”. But Boehner is. Boehner is willing to have the country default on the national debt so he can keep tax cuts for millionaires. He’s trying to gut the social safety net, but is unwilling to remove tax loopholes for big oil companies turning record profits while we all pay $4 for gas. These are issues thatAmericans are consience of and care about. So Obama simply needs to work as hard as he can t put peole back to work. He can either run on a strengthiening the economy or he can run against a do- nothing Congress. Either way, he’s poised to win.